A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
